Viewing archive of Monday, 17 November 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/0907Z from Region 2205 (now around the west limb). There are
currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19
Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
557 km/s at 17/0331Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1906Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1903Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5723 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (19 Nov) and unsettled levels on day three (20 Nov).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 168 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 170/170/170 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 018/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 009/010-007/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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