Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 November 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/0809Z from Region 2209 (S13E07). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
518 km/s at 18/0121Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2016Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1119Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3095 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20
Nov, 21 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 167 Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 170/175/180 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 012/012-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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