Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 November 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov,
22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
463 km/s at 19/0717Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2152Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/2226Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2815 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Nov, 21 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Nov). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21
Nov, 22 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 170 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 175/180/185 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 012/012-012/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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