Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 November 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 20/0641Z from Region 2216 (S13E68). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 434 km/s at 20/0506Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1535Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/0923Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1734 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (21 Nov, 23 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
Class M30%30%30%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Nov 168
  Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 170/175/175
  90 Day Mean        20 Nov 147

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  012/012-009/010-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%30%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm40%30%40%

All times in UTC

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