Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 November 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
20/0641Z from Region 2216 (S13E68). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
434 km/s at 20/0506Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1535Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/0923Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1734 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (21 Nov, 23 Nov)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Nov). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22
Nov, 23 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 168 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 012/012-009/010-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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