Viewing archive of Friday, 24 October 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
24/0748Z from Region 2192 (S12W21). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26
Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
512 km/s at 24/0635Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/0059Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/1435Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6243 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26 Oct)
and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Oct). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold 25-27 Oct.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Class X | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Proton | 35% | 40% | 45% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 218 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 220/220/220 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 009/010-007/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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