Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 February 2015

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 01/1133Z from Region 2268 (S11W57). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 748 km/s at 01/2006Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/1946Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).

III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb

Class M	60%	55%	55%
Class X	20%	15%	15%
Proton	20%	15%	15%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       01 Feb 142
  Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 135/125/125
  90 Day Mean        01 Feb 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Feb  015/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  016/020-012/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	45%	35%	20%
Minor storm	25%	10%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	10%	15%	20%
Minor storm	25%	35%	35%
Major-severe storm	70%	45%	30%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (548.8 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.71nT), the direction is slightly South (-1.41nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-75nT)

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Last X-flare	2025/03/28	X1.1
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This day in history*

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1	2002	M8.82
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1	1979	-202	G3
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*since 1994