Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 February 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 28/0939Z from Region 2294 (S13W28). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 28/2054Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 28/2010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 28/1931Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 238 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (01 Mar, 02 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Feb 123
  Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        28 Feb 144

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Feb  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  016/022-018/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm25%25%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm60%60%40%

All times in UTC

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