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Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 February 2015

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/1057Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 552 km/s at 24/0155Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 24/0032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 24/0114Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Feb 114
  Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 120/125/130
  90 Day Mean        24 Feb 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  014/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Feb  023/028
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  010/012-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm35%20%20%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:19 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (524.4 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.1nT), the direction is slightly South (-6.62nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-79nT)
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C5.75

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23:30 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 23:17 UTC

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