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Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 March 2015

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/1811Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 561 km/s at 04/2258Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/1037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/1131Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1106 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Mar 130
  Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar 135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        05 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Mar  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  007/008-007/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm25%25%40%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:19 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä
Tromsø
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (561.6 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.64nT), the direction is slightly South (-9.84nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-73nT)
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C5.75

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Latest alerts

23:30 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 23:17 UTC

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21:03 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

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13:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 13:07 UTC

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12:33 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 75GW at 13:21 UTC

00:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 23:59 UTC

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