Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 March 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 04 2315 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2015 **********CORRECTION**********IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
04/1039Z from Region 2292 (S08W70). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (05 Mar, 06 Mar)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
524 km/s at 04/1309Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/1144Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 04/0855Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1283 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Mar,
06 Mar, 07 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 124 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NUNuuk
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