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Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 March 2015

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/0554Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 617 km/s at 23/2307Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/1904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/1455Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11608 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Mar, 26 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Mar 133
  Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        24 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  016/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Mar  013/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  007/008-007/008-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm20%20%35%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (548.8 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.71nT), the direction is slightly South (-1.41nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-75nT)

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