Viewing archive of Monday, 20 April 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/1954Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Apr, 22 Apr, 23 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
437 km/s at 20/2100Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 20/2042Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/0850Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2619 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (21 Apr, 22
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Apr 150 Predicted 21 Apr-23 Apr 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 20 Apr 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 024/035-022/027-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 65% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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