Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 May 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (18 May, 19 May) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (20 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 428 km/s at
17/0716Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2057Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/1617Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9241 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 May, 19 May) and
quiet levels on day three (20 May).
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 120 Predicted 18 May-20 May 115/105/095 90 Day Mean 17 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 012/015-010/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
NuukTórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
Latest news
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Sunday, 23 February 2025
X2.0 solar flare from sunspot region 4001
Friday, 7 February 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth, Minor G1 geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
Coronal Hole 22 89Filaments and prominences 720Ask your obscure/"stupid" space weather questions. 343IP cameras for sky surveillance 53Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1629
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
Saturday, 15 March 2025
13:48 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 52GW at 14:31 UTC
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/14 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/14 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 125.9 -28.7 |
| Last 30 days | 136.5 -20.3 |