Viewing archive of Monday, 18 May 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 18/0821Z from Region 2349 (S20E34). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 486 km/s at 18/1918Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 18/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 18/1927Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4939 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (20 May, 21 May).
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 May 115
  Predicted   19 May-21 May 110/108/105
  90 Day Mean        18 May 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 May  009/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  010/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%10%10%

All times in UTC

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