Viewing archive of Friday, 10 April 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
10/0803Z from Region 2320 (S13W39). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 493 km/s at 10/0153Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 10/0404Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 10/1829Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (12 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (13
Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 115 Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 10 Apr 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 028/036 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 014/018-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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