Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 May 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/2131Z from Region 2356 (S15E75). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May,
30 May, 31 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 383 km/s at
28/0316Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/1959Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/2036Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (30 May) and quiet levels on day three (31 May).
III. Event Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 093 Predicted 29 May-31 May 090/095/100 90 Day Mean 28 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 010/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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