Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 June 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/0648Z from Region 2371 (N13E14). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 366 km/s at
20/1537Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/1055Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 20/1015Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 20/0050Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 1342 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jun) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun). Protons have
a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22
Jun, 23 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 135 Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 007/008-019/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 65% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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