Viewing archive of Friday, 17 July 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 542 km/s at
17/0254Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/0306Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7462 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Jul, 20
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (19 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 097 Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 015/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 006/008-008/010-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna
Latest news
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Sunday, 23 February 2025
X2.0 solar flare from sunspot region 4001
Friday, 7 February 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth, Minor G1 geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
50 mhz F2 63CMEs from March 16-17 and small CH 90Ask your obscure/"stupid" space weather questions. 344AR 4031 2Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1634
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
Wednesday, 19 March 2025
21:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 20:59 UTC
21:00 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.54 flare
20:42 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.36)
17:12 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 52GW at 18:01 UTC
00:54 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 113GW at 01:33 UTC
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/19 | M1.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/14 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 138.4 -16.2 |
| Last 30 days | 143 -10 |