Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 September 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Sep 10 2230 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 472 km/s at 09/2232Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 10/1814Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/1527Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3173
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (12 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (13 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 084 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 090/095/100 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep NA/056 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 015/018-020/025-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 55% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
OuluTrondheim
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå
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