Viewing archive of Monday, 30 November 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/1706Z from Region 2458 (N09W36). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec,
02 Dec, 03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 581 km/s at 30/0914Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 30/0804Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 30/0817Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (03
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 096 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 015/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 019/022-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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