Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 November 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 03 2210 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
03/1909Z from Region 2443 (N06E03). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (04 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 760 km/s at 03/1907Z. Total IMF reached 36 nT at 03/0659Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -24 nT at 03/0620Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (04 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 45% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 124 Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 03 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 025/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 016/021-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
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