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Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 November 2015

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 04/1352Z from Region 2443 (N06W09). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 770 km/s at 04/0405Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/0325Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 04/0444Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4404 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 Nov) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
Class M65%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton15%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Nov 114
  Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 115/110/110
  90 Day Mean        04 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  023/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  028/041
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  014/015-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%25%20%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm55%30%25%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:19 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (551.7 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.81nT), the direction is North (6.62nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-73nT)

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23:30 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 23:17 UTC

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00:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 23:59 UTC

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