Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 October 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at minor storm to major storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a
peak speed of 844 km/s at 08/0825Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/2100Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2121Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 21590 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Oct) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 080 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 044/105 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 038/061 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 020/027-011/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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