Viewing archive of Friday, 9 October 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 809 km/s at 09/0154Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1830Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1342Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 57093
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 Oct, 11 Oct) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 081 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 080/085/090 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 041/048 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 020/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 011/012-010/012-013/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 60% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Reykjavik
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