Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 November 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/2253Z from Region 2448 (N06E72). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov,
08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
626 km/s at 04/2101Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/2129Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/0859Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7904 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (07 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (08 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 110 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 031/032 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 007/008-015/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 60% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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