Viewing archive of Monday, 21 December 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
21/0103Z from Region 2472 (N04E78). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec,
24 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 452 km/s at 21/0036Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 20/2231Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 20/2210Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1545
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Dec) and quiet levels on
days two and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 122 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 033/068 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 025/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 011/010-006/006-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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