Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 January 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jan 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jan,
25 Jan, 26 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
599 km/s at 23/0811Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/0631Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/0614Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4118 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Jan, 25 Jan)
and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 099 Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 23 Jan 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 008/008-009/008-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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