Viewing archive of Friday, 19 February 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Feb 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/0508Z from old Region 2497 (N13, L=220). There are currently 3
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
636 km/s at 18/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1748Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/2229Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36465 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (22 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 094 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 020/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 009/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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