Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 May 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 May 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/0409Z from Region 2543 (S05W80). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 May,
17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 15/1714Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 14/2149Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
14/2132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1152 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 May). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (16
May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (17 May) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 60% | 30% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 108 Predicted 16 May-18 May 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 15 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 017/023-011/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 55% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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