Viewing archive of Monday, 24 October 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Oct 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 24/0159Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 24/1341Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
24/1339Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 974 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26
Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (27 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 075 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 075/074/073 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct NA/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 016/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 028/040-025/040-018/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/12/23 | M8.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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