Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 September 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Sep 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/0748Z from Region 2597 (S14W52). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Sep,
29 Sep, 30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 27/2023Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 27/1914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 27/0807Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 6692 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on days one, two, and three (28
Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 086 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 018/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 033/044 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 028/040-028/044-025/038
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä
Reykjavik
Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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