Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 December 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 323 km/s at 03/1357Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6638 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec)
and quiet levels on day three (06 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 085 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 085/080/080 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 008/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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