Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 December 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/1755Z from Region 2615 (S07W20). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 307 km/s at 03/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6344 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Dec), quiet levels on
day two (06 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 082 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 080/080/078 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 001/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 007/008-006/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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