Viewing archive of Monday, 5 December 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/0607Z from Region 2615 (S07W33). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Dec,
07 Dec, 08 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 340 km/s at 05/1921Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
05/0227Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/0045Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3396 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Dec), quiet to active
levels on day two (07 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(08 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 083 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 085/082/080 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 008/008-011/015-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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