Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 November 2016

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 317 km/s at 08/0030Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/1208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2098 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov).

III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       08 Nov 077
  Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        08 Nov 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Nov  009/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  010/012-011/010-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	05%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	20%	20%	15%
Major-severe storm	20%	20%	10%

All times in UTC

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G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 7
Threshold reached: 19:32 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu
Arkhangelsk
Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Oslo
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar

The density of the solar wind is moderate (23.94 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (13.28nT), the direction is North (5.02nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-162nT)

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