Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 December 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec,
08 Dec, 09 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 06/1355Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 06/1103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
06/1138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3472 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (07
Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 080 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 016/020-016/020-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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