Viewing archive of Monday, 2 January 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jan 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (03 Jan, 04
Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (05 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 01/2308Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 02/1932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/1258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 608 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Jan) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 073 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 011/014-017/024-022/028
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 65% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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