Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 December 2016

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 10/1715Z from Region 2615 (S06, L=141). There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 10/0307Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10713 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (13 Dec).

III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       10 Dec 072
  Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec 070/070/073
  90 Day Mean        10 Dec 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  018/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Dec  016/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  011/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	20%	10%	05%
Minor storm	05%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	20%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	20%	10%	10%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 21:40 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (13.32nT), the direction is North (6.83nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-131nT)

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