Viewing archive of Monday, 26 December 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 742 km/s at 26/0142Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 26/0522Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-4 nT at 26/0458Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 26143 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Dec) and quiet levels on
days two and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 074 Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 074/075/075 90 Day Mean 26 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 012/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 018/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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