Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 June 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jun 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
01/0143Z from Region 2661 (N05E64). There is currently 1 numbered
sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jun,
03 Jun, 04 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 01/2025Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 01/1318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/1856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 802 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Jun, 04
Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day two (03 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 076 Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 076/077/078 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 009/010-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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