Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 June 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jun 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 11/1815Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 11/1433Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 11/1441Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 560 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jun 074
  Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun 077/078/076
  90 Day Mean        11 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jun  013/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  013/015-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%25%10%

All times in UTC

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