Viewing archive of Monday, 12 June 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jun 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 12/1943Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 11/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
12/0902Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Jun, 14 Jun)
and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 075 Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 074/073/072 90 Day Mean 12 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 009/010-008/008-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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