Viewing archive of Monday, 25 September 2017

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2017 Sep 25 1312 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 25 Sep 2017 until 27 Sep 2017
Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
25 Sep 2017081006
26 Sep 2017083008
27 Sep 2017085013

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant flares have been recorded. NOAA AR region 2681 (Catania group 55) has been most active, producing two B-class flares. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in coronograph observations. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a small probability of C-class flares.

The solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours (except one short-term weak enhancement around midnight due to the influence of a small negative polarity CH HSS). The solar wind speed is presently about 390 km/s and still decreasing. The total magnetic field strength has been slowly decreasing from around 10 nT to 2 nT. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT and was mainly positive, ranging between -3 and +2.5 nT (except two singular episodes of Bz = -6 and -9 nT yesterday evening). Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be from quiet to unsettled today and tomorrow. Active conditions till minor geomagnetic storms can be expected on September 27 due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 039, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Sep 2017

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux087
AK Chambon La Forêt014
AK Wingst006
Estimated Ap006
Estimated international sunspot number022 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
None

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 18:45 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Petrozavodsk, Surgut, Syktyvkar

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Riga
Moscow, Perm, Saint Petersburg, Yaroslavl
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (16.13nT), the direction is moderately South (-13.41nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-145nT)

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