Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 October 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Oct 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 21/2219Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 22/0008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/2321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 255 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (24 Oct) and active to major storm levels on day three (25
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 077 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 082/084/085 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 013/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 005/005-012/018-028/045
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 45% | 80% |
All times in UTC
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