Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 December 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Dec 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 26/1945Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 25/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/2146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 704 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (28 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (29 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 072 Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 072/072/071 90 Day Mean 26 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 010/008-007/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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