Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 February 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Feb 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (14 Feb, 15 Feb) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 337 km/s at 13/1820Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/2018Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (15 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (16 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
Class M10%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Feb 076
  Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb 076/075/074
  90 Day Mean        13 Feb 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Feb  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  009/012-020/028-014/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm15%30%25%
Major-severe storm01%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm45%60%55%

All times in UTC

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