Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Friday, 16 February 2018

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Feb 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (17 Feb, 18 Feb) and expected to be very low on day three (19 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 16/2010Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/0527Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 16/0855Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb).

III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       16 Feb 072
  Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb 070/068/068
  90 Day Mean        16 Feb 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Feb  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  011/014-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	30%	25%	15%
Minor storm	10%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	20%	20%
Minor storm	30%	30%	25%
Major-severe storm	30%	30%	20%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 21:40 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Luleå, Umeå

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (14.93nT), the direction is North (4.89nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-132nT)

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