Viewing archive of Friday, 30 March 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Mar 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
30/0804Z from Region 2703 (S08E60). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 454 km/s at 30/0322Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
30/1654Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/1738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14850 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 069 Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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