Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 May 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 May 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/1821Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 May,
25 May, 26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 23/1718Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 23/0546Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
23/0523Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 812 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (25 May) and quiet levels on day three (26 May).
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 073 Predicted 24 May-26 May 074/075/075 90 Day Mean 23 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 055/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 008/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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