Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 June 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jun 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 19/1101Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 18/2156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
19/0517Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 212 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 077 Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 078/078/076 90 Day Mean 19 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 020/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 006/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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